Bill Watt’s Blog

I was reading Rolf’s post “ten tech trends for tomorrow” and wanted to respond. I’ve just picked a few that I disagree with to comment on here:

1) cloud computing - it’s important, but not so much for the end users, biz will start adopting but initially it will be used just for cost savings. I believe we’ll start to see the “outcome” of this only _after_ the 3 to 5 year period

I think we’re already seeing the benefit on the consumer side. What you mean when you say cost savings I’m assuming you mean for companies that outsource but I would argue that we’re seeing companies starting and growing only because they can take advantage of these cloud computing resources. The world of startups was already changed due to globalization of the labor market and now the fact that smart programmers can build out pay per use infrastructures means more scale. Have a read of the book The Big Switch and let me know what you think.

And this:

2) mobile web - here’s a biggie, the iPhone and its imitators will finally start to show people the light; we’re seeing massive adoption of search on the iPhone, no reason why well-tailored mobile apps can’t enter that realm. (also, we’re starting to see more more emphasis on data plans, expect competition around the “$99 all-you-can-eat” voice/data plans coming out now)

Don’t take too much of a US centric view… I need to find the stat I heard but it was something like 1b new users would join the internet this year who’ve never seen a computer. That’s got to be driven by developing countries adoption of mobile devices and they’re not all buying $400 iPhones.

I think the promise of the mobile web is upon us… but not in the US just yet. Where other countries have already worked out how to pay from cell phones and smart cards the US market isn’t there yet.

Then there was:

3) Facebook/MySpace - important, but not because of themselves; neither Facebook nor MySpace will see adoption YoY growth like we’re seeing now, again. what IS important is how the newest generations will weave it into their life as a communication tool; the first web/mobile communication suite, if you will.

So- this is fascinating but I think the really interesting piece here is how the next gen of people coming up don’t use email. They post on these sites and have public discussion where we have been using email all these years. Granted, I twitter like a fool so I get it to some extent but email is still my main communication mechanism.

And then this:

6) broadband / tv-on-demand / DRM - consumers becoming more and more comfortable not owning massive libraries of physical media as streaming really does begin to work; DRM less and less bothersome/noticed as long as things “just work”, expectations around what you “can” do with media changing as newer generations never expect to OWN anything, just ACCESS it. (Netflix just debuted “on-demand” box for $99, no extra charges, we’ll see if AppleTV becomes the video iTunes everyone expected it to be)

Yeah, I really disagree with this (at least for me). I like to own and I am perfectly happy to buy multi-terabyte drives if need be to store it all. I hate all these service fees for unlimited monthly consumption. And I know you won’t pay for cbl so you must agree with me on some lvl. Streaming just doesn’t get the job done because I want portability and I hate DRM. Maybe the generation after me is as you say (my gut tells me they don’t expect to own because they don’t want to buy) but this is one area I’ll be happy to fight for a long time. I like ownership and using the stuff I buy in any way I like.

The camera work was really choppy on American Idol. I guess it must always be but with the large number of stars and the top 12 there were many many opportunities to swing and zip and twirl around the cameras. I felt like I was watching the Blair Witch Project.

I am really hating this show. I think it is becoming even more of a joke as time goes on.

• half the singers aren’t even trying to sign during the little canned numbers (I liked Amanda but man, she’s mailing it in)
• the dancing is horrible (sorry Brooke, you stand out for needing to sit down)
• and we have the triple threat of Jason Castro

Ok… those are the performer issues. Here’s the rest:

• The overly long Love Guru promo? (funniest part was sitar hero)
•  David Cook’s guitar hero commercial a la Risky Business
• All the many many performers who sit there and play along (what was ZZ Top doing there?!?)

And my favorite American Idol moment is still the time Ace Young murdered the Queen song We Will Rock You by flipping it into an R&B number and Brian May said, “I can’t do that to my song.” Mariah and Dolly and all the rest go one and smile while their works get butchered but I respect Brian above all those folks. Granted, I understand the creative process has to have people interpret other people’s works… I just don’t think they need to sit there and take it.

Ok, this is becoming a live blogging event for me. Now they brought out the crazy little dude who sang the “brothers till the end of time” song. They also brought out a full on marching band with cheerleaders to play behind him. He couldn’t keep pace and they had to start the commercial music to get him off stage.

PS- Paula needs to watch the top of that dress. We were close to a Janet Jackson moment when she started to bust a move.