Well, I think Ryan’s post is the popular take away from folks watching the HD market… except for one camp of folks who think the following is likely true:
- There isn’t a compelling reason to upgrade at all because the technology is simply evolutionary and not a step function better
- The mass market is going to skip over this next generation DVD and move more quickly to downloading content
Don’t get me wrong, I own an HD-DVD drive along with my Xbox 360 and I have certainly thought about buying a PS3 to get access to Blu Ray content too but in the end I’m pulling for downloads to end my need to drive to stores for a movie in the same way I always download music instead of buying CD’s. Also, letting people download an electronic version puts the content in a portable format and lets them move it to whatever device they want. Yes, I know the movie companies really really want us to buy a unique copy per format.
I think that this is the killer application that will be the next phase of the movie industry. I want to be able to watch it on my big screen tv, on my computer, on my various ipods, or show it on the DVD screen in my car when I’m driving folks around. The first one to make that happen with good content (I do not need all the crap movies they seem to put out before the good movies we really want) and at a good price will get all my business and I’ll gladly dump my physical media. In a related comment- I do not want to pay the same for a download as what other people pay for the physical media and miss out on extra content. I could care less about deleted scenes (Alice likes them though so having them would be nice) but I hate paying the same price for something that costs less and getting less content.
This idea has certainly been encouraged since Apple entered the movie download and rental space and while it is painful to download an HD title today my money is that that will be fixed relatively soon and this “battle” will have had less impact than the VHS vs Beta conflict.